openai (gpt-5-nano-2025-08-07) · not yet verifiable · 40%

The claim is a forecast about a future event (end of 2026). There is no current evidence confirming or refuting that a new platform will enter the top-5 and exceed 500M MAU by year-end 2026.

Key points: The claim refers to a future date (end of 2026). | No published evidence as of 2026-02-10 confirms such an outcome. | Verification requires forward-looking market projections or company disclosures. | Ambiguities include what qualifies as 'new' and how MAU is defined/measured.

anthropic (claude-haiku-4-5-20251001) · not yet verifiable · 15%

The claim predicts that by year-end 2026, at least one new top-5 social platform will surpass 500M MAU. As of the reveal date (Feb 2026), this is a near-future prediction with less than 11 months remaining. Verification requires: (1) defining what constitutes a 'new' platform, (2) establishing the current top-5 ranking, and (3) tracking MAU figures through December 2026.

Key points: The claim uses future-oriented language with a specific endpoint (year-end 2026) | The reveal date is February 10, 2026, meaning only ~10.7 months remain for verification | Multiple interpretive challenges exist: 'new' is undefined (launched when?), 'top-5' requires a ranking methodology, and MAU figures vary by source | As of early 2026, the established top social platforms (Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp, WeChat, Instagram, TikTok, etc.) are mature with 500M+ MAU already | Emerging platforms would need explosive growth to enter top-5 ranking in this timeframe | The claim is technically verifiable but only at year-end 2026

Limitations: Current date context prevents assessment; claim can only be fully evaluated after December 31, 2026 | 'Top-5' ranking varies depending on metric source and methodology | 'New platform' lacks clear definition regarding launch date threshold | MAU reporting is inconsistent across platforms and sources | Platforms may merge, rebrand, or cease operations, affecting interpretability

google (gemini-2.5-flash-lite) · not yet verifiable · 0%

The claim predicts that by the end of 2026, at least one new top-5 social platform will reach over 500 million monthly active users (MAU).

Key points: The claim is a future prediction. | The metric for success is reaching 500 million MAU. | The timeframe for the prediction is by year-end 2026. | The definition of 'new top-5 social platform' is not specified, which could refer to platforms that did not exist before a certain date or platforms that were not in the top 5 at a specific prior date.

Limitations: The claim is a prediction about the future and cannot be factually verified at this time. | The definition of 'new' and 'top-5 social platform' is ambiguous and could influence the verification process once the claim is time-bound.